dezembro 06, 2007

Matando de Fome o Animal

Em tempos de discussão sobre a CPMF, vale citar um artigo a respeito da hipótese de que cortes de impostos costumam forçar governos a reduzir os seus gastos. Conhecido na literatura por "starving the beast", esta hipótese é completamente refutada para os Estados Unidos, de acordo com Romer e Romer (2007). O resumo:
clipped from

The hypothesis that decreases in taxes reduce future government spending is often cited as a reason for cutting taxes. However, because taxes change for many reasons, examinations of the relationship between overall measures of taxation and subsequent spending are plagued by problems of reverse causation and omitted variable bias. To deal with these problems, this paper examines the behavior of government expenditures following legislated tax changes that narrative sources suggest are largely uncorrelated with other factors affecting spending. The results provide no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, they suggest that tax cuts may actually increase spending. The results also indicate that the main effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated tax increases. Examination of four episodes of major tax cuts reinforces these conclusions.
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